The fast-paced, high energy, African theatre sketch was a welcome warmer at the Bella Center entrance last week. In their daily performances, the bugling, drumming, jingly bells and bold coloured costumes, easily captured the attention of passing delegates.

“Theatrical language is an entertaining art form,” says actor/director Luke Ellenbogen. “It’s something different to PowerPoint presentations.”

Copenhagen marks the end destination for the five players from Cape Town, who had previously taken their spectacle to Rio de Janeiro and Barcelona for the Global Gender Climate Alliance. With lots of tongue in cheek humour, the quirky plays show how women deal with increased food prices, firewood shortages and land issues as they raise their families.

“We want to highlight the effects of climate change and also the role of gender in the solution, since women and men are affected differently,” continues Ellenbogen. Indeed one skit has women learning to swim and climb trees, so they can rescue themselves in the rising waters: a reference to the disproportionate number of women who drown in flooding compared to men. “We don’t say women are more important,” says Ellenbogen, “we just want women to be thought of, to have a voice.”

And the voice was sweet. From the a-capella ‘Tulu sana wa me’ to the pulsing, hip-swaying of the “Women’s work is never done” song, chilly bystanders gently moved to the rhythms. Theatre, the actor explains, is an alternative language that can more passionately engage leaders and decision makers.

“The audience laugh at the ironies, and then they ask themselves why,” he says. The African Theatre counts the reduction of ivory poaching and pollution as success stories in its 15-year history of rural and environmental work.

There is an important similarity between the presentation of Darwin’s theory of evolution and the discovery of human influence on climate change: Both advancements in scientific understanding challenge the contemporary human ‘self-identity’. In the case of evolution, the reluctance of society to embrace Darwin’s work had its roots in an unwillingness to accept the idea that humans were ‘just another species’. In the case of climate change, many people find it hard to accept that our species really is powerful enough to alter the course of something as mighty as the planet Earth.

A recent study in the United States actually indicated that a smaller percentage of Americans believe that humans have a role in climate change than was the case a few years ago. One of the reasons for this may be that 2008 was a relatively cold year and newspaper headlines have abounded in 2009 suggesting that 2008 temperatures may signal a global ‘cooling’ or, at the very least, can be taken as evidence that climate scientists present a very uncertain case for global warming.

Such headlines merely underscore the fact that few non-specialists understand what the climate system is and how it works. Humans experience climate through the part of the atmosphere that touches the Earth’s surface. Therefore, we (wrongly) assume that changes in surface atmosphere temperature reflect changes in the climate system as a whole.

In fact, the climate we experience is a function of the amount of energy stored as heat and the redistribution of this heat on the planet. Only a very small amount (less than 5 percent) of the heat stored on Earth is found in the surface atmosphere. In contrast, about 85% of it is stored in the ocean. Thus, temperature changes in the ocean are a more robust indicator of change in the climate system than changes in air temperature.  One of the more worrying scientific results that has emerged since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report is that temperatures in the upper ocean (700m) are increasing about 50 percent faster than was previously thought and an increasing trend in ocean temperature has been recorded since the mid-1970s. Thus, the fact that global air temperature was lower in 2008 than in the immediately preceding years does not give climate scientists reason to doubt their understanding of the climate system or global warming!

It is, of course, true that not all scientists agree on the role of human activities in causing climate change. However, 100 percent agreement among scientists is almost never achieved. Doubt is an indication of a healthy scientific process: Science only advances as long as we continue to ask questions. Most studies show that well over 90 percent of scientists from relevant disciplines find the scientific facts convincing and believe that human activities are influencing the global climate. The chances that this vast majority of climate scientists is wrong are very small indeed.

Katherine Richardson Christensen is a Vice Dean at the Faculty of Science at the University of Copenhagen and a professor in biological oceanography. She was chairman of a large scientific congress “Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions” held as a part of the preparations for the UN Conference on Climate Change in Copenhagen from 10-12 March 2009.

The article is from The Courier of UNESCO number 2009-10, edited by the Danish journalist Niels Boel.

Simply put, Transition Towns are communities where a group of environmentally conscious people act to reduce the town’s carbon footprint and fossil fuel dependence in order to bring about a sustainable future.  They’ve been around since 2005, and methods vary as knowledge of effective measures grows, and spreads virally through burgeoning networks.  The second Transition Town, Totnes, in southwest England, introduced a local currency, the ‘Totnes Pound’ to heighten awareness of the local economy, just one idea adopted by partner organisations.

The concept has been propagated by Rob Hopkins, an erudite former climate activist, drawing on his campaign experience to point out new solutions are needed.

“Activism, lobbying and protesting are the only tools the environment movement has had in the last 40 years, and they haven’t been sufficient for the scale of the challenge.”

In our relationship to fossil fuels and particularly oil, Rob Hopkins sees strong correlations to addictions, and consults addiction specialists in order to understand the processes of change. Consequently the movement’s bottom-up approach acts as a catalyst to unleash the latent capabilities within a town by asking questions such as ”Can you imagine Totnes beyond oil?”

Coined in 1998 by Colin Campbell, ‘Peak Oil’ asserts that oil is finite, and supply will therefore peak at the highest level possible, before eventually, irreversibly, declining.  Arguments oscillate around the timing, with many predicting that we have hit peak already, while others see it in the not too distant future.  Famed environmental journalist George Monbiot includes himself in the latter group, as he made clear in a Klimaforum lecture this week.  What is undeniable by even the most fervent ‘denier’ is that it will happen.  When it does, demand for oil will outstrip supply in a way unprecedented in history, and as basic economics dictates, prices will rise and rise, and then oil will run out.

Oil currently permeates every stage of our lifestyles from commuting to construction materials, and from the medicines we use to the foreign furniture we buy, and it is instrumental in supplying the food that travels thousands of miles to reach our bellies.  So oil price rises will resound throughout our lives, as energy costs inherent in the smallest aspects are magnified.  In short, localisation of production and skills will make a comeback, as the current advantages of international shipping are negated.

Take away oil suddenly, today, and our lifestyles would grind to a halt.  As Rob Hopkins says,
“The Peak Oil concept is a mirror to society that says ‘where is the resilience?’.”

However, far from a doom-laden, post apocalyptic scenario, the transition movement looks to the future and seeks to build local resilience by reducing the precarious nature of our dependence.  Their answer is to provide alternatives that build strength through resourcefulness at the local level.

Consequently, the movement looks back to the 1950s and beyond, before oil was so comprehensively entwined in our lives, and seeks to rediscover lost skills as well as using local materials and resources.  Whilst careful to avoid overly romanticised images, Hopkins seeks to glean the lessons from such wartime ideas as ‘Dig for Victory’, when small gardens produced 10 percent of the UK’s food.  As he says,

“People then didn’t have to take gardening lessons; they knew how to do it by osmosis,” says Hopkins.

While the movements are still in their infancy their main focus is entering into civic life in partnership with established channels to build awareness and engage the community.  Talks and workshops help people to retrain in forgotten skills, whilst the local currency, tree plantings, and communal garden projects provide a tangible manifestation of progress. Eventually, once the creative potential of communities has been realised, they hope to take a hand in larger projects such as heat and energy provision.  This constructive approach rejects the traditionally negative campaigns of direct action groups.  As Hopkins points out:

“It avoids the them-and-us attitude. It sneaks in under the radar.”

Whilst Peak Oil is a contested concept, it is undoubtedly a powerful tool for galvanising people into action.

“People are more interested in what goes into their cars than in what comes out,” says Hopkins.

In his lecture on Tuesday, George Monbiot criticised its motivational value, saying that it encouraged apathy since it will happen anyway, and that by then our carbon emissions will fall too late.  He’s right of course, and we can keep campaigning for government action until we are blue in the face and black and blue on our bodies.  Meanwhile transition towns are preparing for the inevitable, and helping the climate into the bargain.

The next generation of climate reporters is already in training as Class 7 from the Niel Steensen’s secondary school in Copenhagen produced their own climate newspaper – the NSG Times.

Furthermore, last week’s collaboration between the Biology, Geography and English faculties, was conducted entirely in the English language.

With a short introduction to writing skills, the 23 bright young journalists aged 12 and 13 years old, held their own editorial meetings and worked in small groups to produce scientific and cultural articles as well as breaking news, unfazed by the challenge of a second language.

Louise O’Flanagan Henrichsen, English teacher at the school says: “We are working together to give our students a meaningful way of contributing to COP15.”
The budding reporters thoroughly enjoyed the experience, especially their visit to the Rethink Contemporary Art and Climate Change exhibition.

“Seeing through artists’ eyes helped us to think of climate change in different, positive ways instead of doom and gloom,” enthused student Julia Holt.

The COP15 Post invited the students and teachers into the office to see how some slightly older journalists were tackling the conference. The three school editors, who designed the layout of the 12-page newspaper, easily recognized the office buzz, “Though we had to work under pressure, I loved my role” said Daniel Sørensen. “I really enjoyed the stress and rush to get everything done in time,” agreed his friend Alex.

By following the news and visiting side events, the class felt they could better relate to the climate debate and become more well informed.

“It is so refreshing to show them a bit of the real world,” said Henrichsen.

Listening to Ryan Baseanoo (26), a member of the Caribbean Youth Environment Network (CYEN), talk about his reasons for being here, with his passionate and positive attitude, you dare to believe that it will be up-and-coming youth activists like Ryan who may well succeed where the current old guard looks to be failing.

CYEN are here to promote awareness of the Caribbean islands’ issues and the Santo Domingo Caribbean Youth Declaration on Climate Change, and to work with the CARICOM (Caribbean Community) organisation by supporting them in their lobbying efforts.  Ryan, from Trinidad and Tobago, explains:

“We’re a bunch of young, energetic, efficient youths trying to fight for environmental issues. It’s very important to have this network because normally the Caribbean would be grouped together with Latin America, but their issues are very different.  At the end of the day, they are a big continent; we’re a group of small islands being affected just like the Pacific islands.”

The exhilaration Baseanoo feels being in Copenhagen surrounded by so many like-minded people, is palpable.

“It’s really been an amazing experience – just to breathe it all in.  To see so many around you so passionate about climate change issues really gives you a sense of hope.  That what you’re doing at home isn’t in vain; that the issues you face at home are not isolated; that other people around the world are also facing them.”

And the lessons that he and the ten other CYEN delegates are building up from being in close proximity to the delegates from CARICOM and AOSIS (Alliance of Small Island States) will be invaluable as they look towards the future.

“It’s been very interesting and very fruitful,” Ryan enthuses. “You learn through everyone – the delegation team and seeing the process and the workings of the UNFCCC.  Government officials and technocrats have been really supportive and are willing to work with us. To me, it’s the start of something good. Now we can carry that experience back to the Caribbean to make us better equipped and more prepared for COP16.”

As to building their network and developing co-operation with other groups, CYEN has already started.

“Interestingly, we met with a group from the Pacific islands and we came up with a document that we would like to lobby our leaders with.  You can see the collaboration.  This is the first time we’ve ever met but we came together as a group of young people to show the leaders that we don’t have to know each other to work together.  Climate change is affecting all of us.”

Baseanoo’s role models are his old lecturers at the University of the West Indies – Professor John Agard and Dr Leonard Nurse, both incidentally part of the IPCC team who shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore in 2007.  With inspiration like this, it’s easy to understand why he got involved with CYEN.  But Ryan’s view on why young people are more environmentally conscious than the older generation stems from something more personal.

“A lot of the biodiversity and plant species in the Caribbean are disappearing fast – and who knows, they may even become extinct before our children get to see them.  That’s very sad.  So that’s why you find more young people getting interested in climate change issues.”

And from his experience in Copenhagen, Baseanoo believes that youth groups are now feeling more empowered than ever before.

“Young people are out there fighting and we really have a voice, when normally young people are not heard. With these climate change talks, you realise that young people have a say and it gives you hope to really move this on.”

Perhaps one of the redeeming features of COP15 is the knowledge and experience it has given the next generation of climate change politicians, advocacy groups and activists to take the climate agenda forward into the future.

Politicians have a duty to look past the politics and recognise their responsibility to the world when it comes to signing a climate agreement, according to Israeli President Shimon Peres.

The elder statesman arrived in Copenhagen on Wednesday as high-level negotiations kicked off in a last ditch effort to secure an agreement which has been looking more and more shaky as the hours tick by.

Speaking with The COP15 Post, Peres said that Israel is willing to put aside political differences to work with other countries on the climate issue as “the environment has no borders”.

“Even if you don’t have friendly political relations we’re obliged to have responsible ecological relations,” Peres said, adding that the urgency of climate change should be addressed between Middle Eastern countries, even if a unilateral political agreement cannot be reached in Copenhagen today.

Peres suggested that the Quartet be a possible option to intervene in the issue of climate change in the troubled Middle East.

“They could really help us by forming an independent, apolitical headquarters for the ecological issues of the Middle East.”

The Quartet is comprised of the US, EU, Russia and the UN and forms a body that mediates in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Geographically Israeli has many borders, but from a transportation infrastructure point of view, Peres considers Israel an island.

“We’ve got nowhere to move,” he said with a wry smile, “so we thought that for Israel in particular, electric cars were very important.”

The country became the first successful pilot project for the Better Place car company, founded by Israeli-American Shai Agassi, who Peres took under his wing more than two years ago.

Peres was one of the driving forces in encouraging the Israeli government to pass a bill granting tax incentives for owners of electric cars and Better Place, together with car maker alliance Renault-Nissan and local sector groups, has installed electric car charging points across the country.

It is hoped that the electric car project will save on fuel consumption and push the country towards its goal of becoming independent of oil by 2020 – something which Peres is pushing for.

“The Middle East has oil deep in the ground and the sun high in the sky. I think we have to look up and not just look down. It’s not simple to harness the power of the sun, it’s costly and requires a great deal of land but I hope in the future we can make it cheaper.”

And his outlook for the negotiations? Whether it pushes on to success in the last hours or fails on key issues, Peres believes that negotiators can still be thankful for one thing.

“Despite all the problems and skirmishes, Copenhagen is making the climate issue known to many people and it’s seeping into their consciousness.”

But he also had harsh words for parties who already announced earlier this week that the talks would end in failure.

“If they don’t make the deal in Copenhagen – what then? They think they can just go home and pollution will wait?”

Anna Keenan has dropped from 60kg to 45kg during her hunger strike for climate justice.

The 23-year-old Australian has not eaten for 42 days in protest of global inaction in dealing with climate change. She is part of the Climate Justice Fast and, of the seven original fasters, three have continued until today, now reaching their 42nd day entirely without food, and will continue until the end of COP. The other fasters have ended the fast after medical advice, and all are in good spirits.

In a hoarse but surprisingly energetic voice, Keenan said she had only consumed water, salt every few days, to keep the nervous system functioning, and on the advice of a doctor, vitamin B in the last week.

“We listen to the advice of doctors and experts. World leaders should do the same on climate change.”

She added that, “After 42 days, I’m feeling incredibly strong, healthy and empowered.

She said 10,000 people around the world were fasting for 24 hours in solidarity with the Climate Justice Fast. Author Naomi Klein, environmentalist Bill McKibben, humanitarian leader Mary Robinson and Indian activist Vandana Shiva among those fasting.
Climate Justice Fact released as statement yesterday evening stating: “We, the participants of Climate Justice Fast!, are undertaking our international hunger strike in order to call upon world leaders – and all people, everywhere – to act with courage and good faith for our common, global good, by implementing the most rapid possible transition to stabilise atmospheric greenhouse gases below 350ppm CO2, and by committing to deliver justice for the global poor and future generations – who are the least responsible for causing climate change, yet who suffer the most from its effects.”

The amount of attention Tuvalu has managed to grab during the UN climate conference is disproportionate to its size.

Comprised of four reef islands and five atolls, Tuvalu is the third least populated and fourth smallest sovereign state in the world and is placed midway between Australia and Hawaii in the Pacific Ocean.

But the country’s delegation has captured the imagination of the global media and perhaps the public with its bold, even brave, statements at the COP15 summit.

Prime Minister Apisai Ielemia announced his arrival yesterday, saying his delegation would be leaving the conference with a “bitter taste in our mouths”.

“We came here expecting an open and transparent process. Unfortunately this is not happening. Background deals have been worked out behind closed doors by a few select nations.”

Ielemia showed a video of the dramatic tides Tuvalu experienced in 2006 as a way to illustrate the threat sea level rises present to the tiny island nation.

He then pointed out that ocean acidification, which is destroying the nation’s coral reefs, and the increasing frequency and intensity of cyclones were two additional climate change induced threats to Tuvalu.

In response to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s promise to raise $100 billion annually by 2020 to assist poor countries in coping with climate change, as long as America’s demands for a global warming pledge are met, Tuvalu’s prime minister said simply: “I am not willing to trade our existence for money.”

“It is amazing that the US is not considering humanity,” he said.

“My message to the US and other developed countries is that they should consider the existence of vulnerable countries such as mine.”

Ielemia also said the only plan Tuvalu had for dealing with climate change related disaster was “just to get through it”.

“We have nowhere to run to. There is nothing else we can do. There is no mountain we can climb up. That’s why we are making a lot of noise. We have a fundamental right to exist.”

Crunch time hit the UN climate change conference hit the Bella Center yesterday as thousands of negotiators hunkered down to work through the night in an effort to secure some semblance of a deal.

But a document leaked last night originating from the UNFCCC Secretariat suggesting that, despite the political grandstanding, the planet’s temperature will potentially rise by 3C because the offers made by member nations will not be enough to stabilise the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

According to the internal document, which is dated 11pm on 15 December, total emissions must stay below 44 gigatonnes to stabilise the climate, but country pledges and efforts so far still leave a shortfall of up to 4.2 gigatonnes.

The document is a preliminary assessment of pledges made by industrialised Annex 1 countries under the Kyoto Protocol and also accounts for voluntary policies being planned by non-Annex 1 countries.

It stated that if the remaining emissions gap was not closed and member countries didn’t do enough leading up to and after 2020 then temperatures would rise by around 3C.

In reference to pledges and commitments made so far, the Secretariat document said that there were “uncertainties related to baseline emission levels” of industrialised country targets.

Meanwhile developing countries’ voluntary actions were said to be “difficult to assess” because of the variety of models being used to implement emission-reducing projects.

In what may prove a blow to many low-lying and island nations, nowhere in the document is the temperature limit increase of 1.5C mentioned. The 1.5C limit has been repeatedly called for by island states who say anything higher would be disastrous for them.

Speaking yesterday before the document was leaked, Maldives president, Mohammad Nasheed, said it still wasn’t too late to get a good agreement.

He also speculated that a final text due to be presented to heads of state this morning will not be to everyone’s liking.

“It won’t be the text that any of us is looking for. It won’t be the text that the Maldives wants. It won’t be the text that neither China, the US nor the EU wants, but it will be hopefully a text that has language in it that addresses most issues.”

Nasheed addressed the issue of his sought-after 1.5C, equating to 350 parts per million CO2 in the atmosphere, but said it wouldn’t be an easy thing to secure and perhaps the final treaty text would contain language promising a migration towards a 1.5C limit within a set time frame.

Activist Bill McKibben, of the 350 campaign to return atmospheric CO2 concentrations to the ‘safe limit’ of 350ppm, said the document came as no surprise.

“In one sense this is no secret – we’ve been saying it for months. But it is powerful to have the UN confirming its own sincerity,” McKibben said.

The UNFCCC said it was not their policy to comment on internal documents and it remains to be seen how much the document has been affecting negotiations.

But Connie Hedegaard, former COP15 president, who is chairing the two-track approach to negotiations, was adamant last night that they would work to the final hour.

“We can’t have 119 heads of state gather and say that we can’t manage to agree on a deal,” Hedegaard told Danish media.

While no additional news arrived with Clinton regarding the already announced emission reduction targets of 17 percent on 2005 levels by 2020, she did bring news of potential funding.

Clinton told a packed press conference that the US is willing to put together $100 billion annually by 2020 if all other negotiating parties are willing to commit to transparency, in addition to taking serious national action, sign an operational accord and assist the poorest countries.

But she was also adamant that the US funding would not be forthcoming if parties were not will to work within the margins of all four conditions.

The $100 billion would be sourced from both public, private and multilateral sources of funding.

But not committing to transparency would be a “deal-breaker”, according to Clinton.

This November year I built my own family bonfire to celebrate Guy Fawkes night here in England. As I piled up the fallen branches, dead wood and leaves I calculated how much carbon would be released as a result.  From the volume of the heap, the ratio of solid material to air, and then with a little knowledge of chemistry I ascertained that my little pile would release 2.2 tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere when set ablaze.  I was a little staggered by the result.  This equated to a carbon emission from a typical saloon car in the UK that travels 10,000 miles per year.

Maybe this small example demonstrates the scale of the problem we face at a personal level.  I for one did not have an idea how much carbon would be released from such a small fire.   Relating technical issues and figures into something the average person can relate to may lead to a greater appreciation and understanding of the global challenges we face.  Quoting figures that people have little empathy with will have less impact than ones they can relate to.

It has been a dozen years since December 1997 when the world’s first global treaty to combat climate change, the Kyoto Protocol, was agreed.  During this period scientists have become all the more confident that emissions from greenhouse gases are causing the earth’s temperature to rise, leading to dramatic if not catastrophic consequences.

What complicates the global warming picture is that the Earth has experienced significant natural cooling and warming periods throughout its 4.5 billion year history.  There have been four main ice ages, and within each ice age there have been periods when there have been significant warming and cooling.  However research has shown in the last 10,000 years our climate has stayed remarkably stable and warm.  This has allowed human civilization to grow, which has led to man-made induced temperatures rises.  The concern is that such rises may flip the earth into an unstable climate regime which could increase the frequency and duration of floods, drought and famine.  Such fearful consequences would lead to an increased risk of social/political de-stabilisation which would further hamper our attempts to control and correct severe climate change.

So how do we move forward?  The consensus is that we must act now; decisively and quickly.  This will demand a paradigm shift not only from many of our world’s leaders, but from society as a whole.

The wealthiest nations will undoubtedly have a large financial burden in any agreement to control climate change.  Their scientists and engineers will also have great opportunities to achieve a common good.  Such works range from heavy civil engineering projects to capture wave energy in the north Atlantic, to the provision of new nuclear power stations aligned with deep burial chambers to store spent radioactive waste.  Scientists are working on the development of silicon chip technology in order to improve the efficiency of voltaic cells.  There is also the development of smaller, more efficient, wind turbines that are suitable for domestic locations.  Climate change mitigation projects such as carbon burial mines, some 3km deep, are also being tested and constructed.

The number of innovative experiments and schemes is growing on an almost daily basis.  So there are reasons to be hopeful that such activity will yield some positive results in the years to come.

Energy generation is of course only part of the issue.  Conservation is just as important.  A significant amount of carbon emissions results from deforestation.  Since the 1700’s deforestation has accounted for some 200 billion tonnes of man-made carbon emissions.  That is 40 percent of the total since the beginning of the industrial revolution.  At the current rate of logging, the world’s rain forests could completely vanish within a hundred years.  It is important that Copenhagen sees an agreement for a dramatic reduction in deforestation.

In the UK and other countries, a significant amount of energy loss is through poorly insulated housing and inefficient heating systems.   Much is being done to reduce these inefficiencies by tightening up on building regulation.  There is an argument that the planning process should be more pro-active in seeking positive changes. For example, developments over a certain size could include for a minimum use of 30 percent energy from renewables.  This could be achieved through a combination of small wind vanes, voltaic cells and ground source heat pumps.  There is an argument also that new public buildings should be 50 percent run on renewable energy.  Such public developments could be seen as demonstration projects to give a lead to others.

It will be argued by G77 nations, that they have millions of citizens who are deep in poverty, that these countries are historically minor contributors to the current crisis.  It will no doubt follow that they should be allowed to pollute for some time in order to raise the quality of their citizens’ lives. Whilst this will be part of ongoing negotiations it should be the goal of every country to reduce their emissions – especially as the emerging nations are now collectively producing more greenhouse emissions than established nations.

To drive this massive shift towards renewable energy and reduce carbon emissions will cost billions, and there is a good argument that a lot of this should be funded by established nations such as the US and Europe.  For any global contract to work there must be an understanding for all nations to fund these changes, with the wealthiest, and higher polluting nations contributing relatively highly.

But the scale of social change that is required will not happen if we rely on market forces alone.  Social policy, though a carefully linked global strategy to local tactical measures are needed worldwide.  Hence the reason why you are here today.

So often what we do today is tomorrow obsolete.  Well today is different.  Without positive agreement and action during this short conference our future will look somewhat shorter.

Vincent Carpenter is a British Chartered Civil Engineer and Director of Archibald Shaw Consulting Engineers www.archibaldshaw.co.uk

“We are experiencing the effects of climate change first-hand,” says Danny Ishulutak, a school student. He’s at the National Gallery with his friend, Janet Evic – a pair of 17 year-old Canadians who are in Copenhagen to narrate an unbiased and non-sensationalised account of their lives growing up in their Arctic village. “We don’t have buses or shopping malls, only fifteen hundred people and only three stores,” says Janet.

Their town Pangnirtung ‘s original Inuit name – Panniqtuuq – may mean ‘the place of many bull caribou’, but for Nunavut, Canada’s north-eastern arctic territory, this could be soon be inappropriate. “There aren‘t many caribou left,” they say.

The disappearance of caribou, along with other species, is symbolic of the danger facing the region. According to Greenpeace, caribou have been dying out due to warmer-than-average winters, and a 2004 study by World Wildlife Fund Canada discovered worms infesting the animals’ muscles.

Located on a coastal plain on the edge of Pangnirtung Fjord, the four thousand year old settlement is at the forefront of vulnerability to climate change. Split by the Duval River, the town’s two parts are mutually accessible by two bridges which, as a knock-on effect of the previous summer’s flash-flooding, collapsed.

“We couldn’t cross the bridge. We’re divided into two towns though it’s really one whole town and there’s a river so we have to cross the bridge. They were going to stop using the second one but both of them broke down and then cars couldn’t cross them and our water and sewage and trash goes to the other side of the town so it was really horrible,” says Danny. In fact, Pangnirtung’s inhabitants had to offload raw sewage into the river, which flows into the fjord, which is inhabited by whales.

“The permafrost is melting,” states Danny. “Our land changes every year and if too much permafrost is gone then it just goes down, down, down.” Janet adds: “Canada has a national park that has glaciers and rivers but they are just going away.”

“This summer was hot,” stresses Janet. “Everyone was swimming and was like ‘oh my god it’s getting pretty hot up here!’”

Temperatures in the region have climbed by as much as four degrees – between three and four times faster than in the rest of Canada. “A lot of people come to talk about climate change and the elders will tell them what’s been happening – that the weather’s really changing and it wasn’t this windy and that the weather used to be better,” says Danny.

“The weather affects lots of things: the permafrost, the animals and our fishing industries – so it is becoming difficult for our hunters,” he concluded.

Climate change in Greenland has generated an industrial revolution.  Due to melting ice and warming oceans, the country says it must adapt in order to survive. Fish and shellfish account for a huge a proportion of Greenland’s exports, yet warmer ocean currents are decimating prawn stocks, which make up over half of the trade.  Studies indicate that cod are replacing prawns and halibut.  However, there is a steep transition cost for refitting boats and factories to accommodate different types of fishing.

Seal hunting is also a problem.  The animals are migrating to colder waters.  Milder temperatures make it unsafe for hunters to use their dogsleds and villagers in remote areas are becoming concerned about the lack of seal meat.
Hunters and fishermen are forfeiting their traditional lifestyles in favour of other industries.  According to the documentaries, Greenland and Double Effect, an easy transition appears to be tourism.  In the film a local fisherman claims the people have become ‘tourists in our own town’ responding to unusual changes in the weather and finding themselves swamped with tourists.  Hunters and fishermen are hoping to profit from tourists rather than their catch.  The hope is that traditional lifestyles will not be completely lost.

Greenland will be 75 percent dependent on hydroelectric power by 2010.  This technology harnesses the glacial melt water – of which there is an increasing supply.  Industries such as these are “vital in order to create a self-sustaining economy” according to the Employers Association of Greenland.

Mineral and oil deposits will be increasingly exploited.  “Greenland wants to turn the mineral resources industry into one of the country’s primary business areas,” says the Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum.  Gold, lead, zinc, precious stones, and uranium mines all have the potential to employ hundreds of workers.

Thirteen offshore areas have been licensed for oil and natural gas extraction.  The Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum states, “It is a central strategic aim to make the industry interested in investing in oil exploration in Greenland.”
But some Greenlanders are dismayed at the current pollution levels in their country, which would only be exacerbated by more mines, factories, and potential oil spills.  The Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum is not worried, stating that a formal assessment of the offshore areas to ensure that “The activities undertaken will have the least possible negative impact on the environment.”

Greenland gained autonomy in lieu of Danish Home Rule earlier this year. In the past twenty years, a major economic expansion has seen GDP grow by 188 percent.  It is up to Greenland to decide which tack their industrial revolution will take.

Leading business leaders joined mayors prior to the conclusion of the Climate Summit for Mayors at Copenhagen City Hall yesterday to herald the benefits for public-private partnership in funding sustainability projects.

During a panel debate with notable figures from the world of aviation, banking and economics, mayors debated the need for innovative partnerships between cities and the private sector to push forward sustainable projects.

Sir Richard Branson of the Virgin Group spoke to the assembled delegates and encouraged mayors to run their cities like “great companies”. He advised local governments to copy the actions of companies and look for the gaps in the marketplace – and for cities, that presents an opportunity for retrofitting existing buildings to make them more energy-efficient.

And Branson’s ‘pull yourself up by the bootstraps’ approach to business is influencing his views on the climate conference and he advocates continuing with climate initiatives even if an agreement cannot be reached tomorrow.

“This week, if governments do not come to a resolution then I think it’s up to businesses to actually force through resolutions to this issue,” Branson said, adding that he believed the shipping and aviation industries need to set necessary targets themselves in addition to any legislative text.

He continued that industry needs to find imaginative ways of reaching targets, much in the same way that cities need to find imaginative ways of engaging the private sector.

Robert B. Zoellick, World Bank President, highlighted the effective utilisation of private institutions as a method of leveraging funds for climate adaptation.

The World Bank previously lent $300m to Thailand as part of the climate development fund and the Thai authorities earmarked $70 million for an urban project in Bangkok. Of these funds, about 30 percent was leveraged from the private sector.

“The basic lessons of development are that it won’t work without local support,” Zoellick said.

And for the media man of the hour?

Well Governor Schwarzenegger was quick to pass the floor and the credit to Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa of Los Angeles, where a concerted effort to replace some 5100 old diesel trucks at the LA seaport has reduced truck emissions by 70 percent.

But Schwarzenegger was also keen to lead by example. The man famous for his Hummers as much as his muscles and political clout, refitted his three gas guzzling vehicles to run on hydrogen, biofuel and the third being converted to a hybrid.

He also revealed how he now uses solar power to heat his home pool and jacuzzi, which his children should enjoy while they can, because according to the governor, they are only allowed to take five minute showers to conserve water.

He praised the grassroots movement for driving the climate debate and said more should be encouraged to get involved.

“You’ve got to make to whole thing hip for them to fight climate change.”

The report of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA) has been announced after negotiators worked through the night until 7am in the morning. But negotiators have been unable to reach agreement on several points.

On global goals for emission reductions, agreement has not been reached on whether to propose a temperature rise target of 1.5C or 2C above pre-industrial levels.

The collective global reduction target by 2050 is undecided, with figures of 50, 85 and 95 percent mooted. Additionally, no goal for carbon financing has been stated in the report.

Tuvalu’s representative Ian Fry was the first delegate to comment on the document. He described the lack of progress as “extremely disappointing” adding  “I have the feeling of dread that we are on the Titanic and we are sinking fast, but we can’t use the lifeboats because someone on the ship is saying we need to discuss whether we are actually sinking.”

The South African delegation said the G77 bloc of countries and China would like to see the document considered for another day.

Sweden’s delegate however, urged an end to the technical negotiations as it was now time for political decisions to be made.

At the end of the session, it was announced that Connie Hedegaard has stepped back from the COP15 presidency and been replaced by Danish prime minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

“With so many heads of state and governments arriving to give their statements, it is appropriate that the Danish prime minister presides. Negotiations and consultations will be conducted at all
levels. Who would have believed that in Bali two years ago?” Hedegaard said.

She added that Løkke Rasmussen had appointed her as his special envoy, meaning she would continue to negotiate in informal consultations.

The prime minister said approximately 115 heads of state and government were taking part in the conference to close a deal in Copenhagen.

“This historical will to address the climate challenge is the strongest possible driver for a global agreement. The final negotiations will be tense and strenuous. I have therefore asked Connie Hedegaard to continue to negotiate the Copenhagen outcome with her colleagues,” Løkke Rasmussen said.