COP15 Post | News from the UN Climate Change Conference Copenhagen 2009

By Vincent Carpenter

This November year I built my own family bonfire to celebrate Guy Fawkes night here in England. As I piled up the fallen branches, dead wood and leaves I calculated how much carbon would be released as a result.  From the volume of the heap, the ratio of solid material to air, and then with a little knowledge of chemistry I ascertained that my little pile would release 2.2 tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere when set ablaze.  I was a little staggered by the result.  This equated to a carbon emission from a typical saloon car in the UK that travels 10,000 miles per year.

Maybe this small example demonstrates the scale of the problem we face at a personal level.  I for one did not have an idea how much carbon would be released from such a small fire.   Relating technical issues and figures into something the average person can relate to may lead to a greater appreciation and understanding of the global challenges we face.  Quoting figures that people have little empathy with will have less impact than ones they can relate to.

It has been a dozen years since December 1997 when the world’s first global treaty to combat climate change, the Kyoto Protocol, was agreed.  During this period scientists have become all the more confident that emissions from greenhouse gases are causing the earth’s temperature to rise, leading to dramatic if not catastrophic consequences.

What complicates the global warming picture is that the Earth has experienced significant natural cooling and warming periods throughout its 4.5 billion year history.  There have been four main ice ages, and within each ice age there have been periods when there have been significant warming and cooling.  However research has shown in the last 10,000 years our climate has stayed remarkably stable and warm.  This has allowed human civilization to grow, which has led to man-made induced temperatures rises.  The concern is that such rises may flip the earth into an unstable climate regime which could increase the frequency and duration of floods, drought and famine.  Such fearful consequences would lead to an increased risk of social/political de-stabilisation which would further hamper our attempts to control and correct severe climate change.

So how do we move forward?  The consensus is that we must act now; decisively and quickly.  This will demand a paradigm shift not only from many of our world’s leaders, but from society as a whole.

The wealthiest nations will undoubtedly have a large financial burden in any agreement to control climate change.  Their scientists and engineers will also have great opportunities to achieve a common good.  Such works range from heavy civil engineering projects to capture wave energy in the north Atlantic, to the provision of new nuclear power stations aligned with deep burial chambers to store spent radioactive waste.  Scientists are working on the development of silicon chip technology in order to improve the efficiency of voltaic cells.  There is also the development of smaller, more efficient, wind turbines that are suitable for domestic locations.  Climate change mitigation projects such as carbon burial mines, some 3km deep, are also being tested and constructed.

The number of innovative experiments and schemes is growing on an almost daily basis.  So there are reasons to be hopeful that such activity will yield some positive results in the years to come.

Energy generation is of course only part of the issue.  Conservation is just as important.  A significant amount of carbon emissions results from deforestation.  Since the 1700’s deforestation has accounted for some 200 billion tonnes of man-made carbon emissions.  That is 40 percent of the total since the beginning of the industrial revolution.  At the current rate of logging, the world’s rain forests could completely vanish within a hundred years.  It is important that Copenhagen sees an agreement for a dramatic reduction in deforestation.

In the UK and other countries, a significant amount of energy loss is through poorly insulated housing and inefficient heating systems.   Much is being done to reduce these inefficiencies by tightening up on building regulation.  There is an argument that the planning process should be more pro-active in seeking positive changes. For example, developments over a certain size could include for a minimum use of 30 percent energy from renewables.  This could be achieved through a combination of small wind vanes, voltaic cells and ground source heat pumps.  There is an argument also that new public buildings should be 50 percent run on renewable energy.  Such public developments could be seen as demonstration projects to give a lead to others.

It will be argued by G77 nations, that they have millions of citizens who are deep in poverty, that these countries are historically minor contributors to the current crisis.  It will no doubt follow that they should be allowed to pollute for some time in order to raise the quality of their citizens’ lives. Whilst this will be part of ongoing negotiations it should be the goal of every country to reduce their emissions – especially as the emerging nations are now collectively producing more greenhouse emissions than established nations.

To drive this massive shift towards renewable energy and reduce carbon emissions will cost billions, and there is a good argument that a lot of this should be funded by established nations such as the US and Europe.  For any global contract to work there must be an understanding for all nations to fund these changes, with the wealthiest, and higher polluting nations contributing relatively highly.

But the scale of social change that is required will not happen if we rely on market forces alone.  Social policy, though a carefully linked global strategy to local tactical measures are needed worldwide.  Hence the reason why you are here today.

So often what we do today is tomorrow obsolete.  Well today is different.  Without positive agreement and action during this short conference our future will look somewhat shorter.

Vincent Carpenter is a British Chartered Civil Engineer and Director of Archibald Shaw Consulting Engineers www.archibaldshaw.co.uk